South Africa is facing mounting concerns over the stability of its electricity supply as Eskom, the national power utility, continues to battle high levels of unplanned outages. According to Eskom’s Winter 2025 Outlook, released on 5 May, load shedding can be avoided only if unplanned breakdowns remain below 13 gigawatts (GW). However, recent reports show that from 30 May to 5 June, unplanned outages averaged 14.6 GW, well above the threshold. While Eskom has so far managed to keep the lights on since suspending load shedding on 15 May, the risk of blackouts persists if the situation worsens.
Despite widespread rumours on social media suggesting a return to Stage 4 or even Stage 6 load shedding in early July, Eskom has firmly dismissed these claims. The utility reassures the public that no such decisions have been made, and any reintroduction of scheduled power cuts will be communicated officially. That said, Eskom has warned that if unplanned outages escalate to around 15 GW, Stage 2 load shedding may be necessary for approximately 21 days during the winter months. This forecast is based on current system conditions and does not represent an immediate schedule.
The underlying causes of the persistent strain on South Africa’s electricity grid are complex and long-standing. A large portion of Eskom’s coal-fired power stations, some over 40 years old, are suffering from years of inadequate maintenance and underinvestment. As these plants become increasingly unreliable, Eskom struggles to maintain consistent output. Additionally, municipal debts exceeding R100 billion have further weakened the utility’s financial capacity to perform necessary upgrades and expansions. While South Africa is gradually transitioning towards renewable energy, the pace has not yet been sufficient to compensate for the declining coal capacity.
Public frustration has been mounting, particularly in communities where outages have been more frequent and prolonged. Protests have erupted in areas such as Soweto and Meadowlands, driven by a combination of energy insecurity, poor service delivery, and economic hardship. NGOs and advocacy groups have warned that power outages are becoming a catalyst for broader social unrest, especially in regions already plagued by poverty and limited public infrastructure.
Eskom has reiterated that it remains committed to transparency and will provide advance notice should load shedding be required. The utility is also investing in contingency planning to ensure that any potential outages are managed as effectively as possible. In the meantime, residents are encouraged to stay informed through official channels and prepare for the possibility of intermittent supply disruptions. While South Africa is not currently facing Stage 6 load shedding, the fragile state of the power grid demands vigilance, clear communication, and coordinated action to prevent a deeper crisis.
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